电力系统受极端天气的影响分析及其适应策略

Analysis of Power System Affected by Extreme Weather and Its Adaptive Strategy

气候变化对人类社会的影响越来越受关注,随之而来的一系列极端天气引发系统断电的风险也越来越显著。为应对气候变化尤其是极端天气,人类社会需采取减缓和适应2种应对策略,对于发展中国家与小岛国,由于气候变化已经发生,因此气候问题将首先是适应问题。为解决电力系统如何从各个环节完整地适应气候变化问题,建立了一个适应气候变化的电力系统发展体系,提出一种涵盖极端气象因素的电力系统发展路径构建方法。在总结各种极端天气对电力系统影响的基础上,对电网的脆弱性进行评价;研究了适应极端天气的总体策略,并提出电力系统适应极端天气事件的方案,即规划–建设–应急管理–评估(planning-construction-emergency management-assessment,PCEA)抗灾体系。在规划阶段重点进行保底电网规划,构建不停电最小电网主干网;基于方案不同阶段的应用实例,验证了PCEA体系可以促使电力系统更好地适应极端天气。

The impact of climate change on human society has attracted more and more attention,and the risk of power outage caused by a series of extreme weather is becoming more and more significant.In order to deal with climate change,especially extreme weather,human society needs to adopt two coping strategies of mitigation and adaptation.For the developing countries and small island countries,since climate change has already taken place,the climate problem will first be adaptation.In order to solve the problem of how the power system can fully adapt to climate change from all aspects,a power system development system adapted to climate change was established,and a construction method of power system development path covering extreme meteorological factors was proposed.On the basis of summarizing the impacts of various extreme weather on the power system,the vulnerability of power grid was evaluated.The overall strategy of adapting to extreme weather was studied,and the scheme of power system adapting to extreme weather events was proposed,namely planning-construction-emergency management-assessment(PCEA)disaster resistance system.In the planning stage,the study focused on the minimum power grid planning and built the minimum power grid backbone network without power outage.Based on the application examples in different stages of the scheme,it was verified that the PCEA system can make the power system better adapt to the extreme weather.