入侵植物三裂叶豚草在中国的潜在适生区预测

Prediction of potential habitat of invasive plant Ambrosia trifida in China

【目的】三裂叶豚草是中国重点防控的入侵植物,研究其潜在的适生区分布格局变化对预警防控具有重要意义。【方法】基于MaxEnt优化模型预测当前及未来(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)气候情景下三裂叶豚草潜在的地理分布格局。【结果】当调控倍频(RM)=3.5,FC(特征组合)=LQH(线性、二次型、片段化组合)时为最优模型,MaxEnt模型的预测结果较准确,受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.9287;综合8种途径评估出人类活动因子(hfp,贡献率69%)、等温性(bio3,贡献率8.9%)、温度季节变动系数(bio4,贡献率2.9%)、年降水量(bio12,贡献率7.3%)和海拔(ELEV,贡献率3.7%)是制约三裂叶豚草潜在地理分布的主要环境因子;在当前气候情景下,三裂叶豚草的高适生区主要集中在东北平原、江淮地区、京津冀、山东半岛等经济发达地区。【结论】在未来气候变化情景下,三裂叶豚草在我国的潜在适生区范围总体呈现不同程度的缩减,即丧失率大于增加率;三裂叶豚草将有向南迁移的趋势;最冷月最低温度(bio6)是最不相似变量分析中出现频次最高的因子,表明温度因素对三裂叶豚草潜在地理分布变迁起到重要制约作用。本研究结果可为三裂叶豚草的预防和控制提供理论基础。

【Aim】Ambrosia trifida is a serioius invasive plant in China,and studying its distribution pattern and potentially suitable areas are crucial for early warning and control measures.【Method】This study was based on the MaxEnt optimization model to predict the potential geographic distribution of A.trifida under current and future climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5).【Result】At RM=3.5,the model FC=LQH was optimal;the prediction was relatively accurate,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(i.e.,the AUC value)reached 0.9287.Eight factors were comprehensively evaluated:human activity factor(hfp,69%contribution rate),isothermality(bio3,8.9%contribution rate),annual precipitation(bio12,7.3%contribution rate),and elevation(ELEV,3.7%contribution rate),temperature seasonal variation coefficient(bio4,2.9%contribution rate).Under the current climate,highly suitable areas of A.trifida were mainly concentrated in the Northeastern Plain,Jianghuai Region,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Shandong Peninsula,and other economically developed areas.【Conclusion】In future climate change scenarios,areas potentially suitable to A.trifida in China will be reduced to varying degrees,as suggested by the loss rate exceeding the increase rate.A.trifida will thus likely migrate towards the south.The lowest temperature of the coldest month(bio6)is the most frequent factor in the most dissimilar variable analysis,indicating that temperature plays an important role in potential geographic distribution changes of A.trifida.The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of A.trifida.