基于概率分析的公路系统灾害风险研究

Highway System Disaster Risk Based on Probability Analysis

针对高寒地区公路系统遭遇雪灾规模大、持续时间长的特点,以黑龙江地区公路系统及其常遭遇的风吹雪灾害为研究对象,从灾害发生机理探究灾害形成的宏观条件;基于概率论思想,通过影响因素的联合概率密度函数,将致灾因子发生可能性、危险等级及危险强度三者联系在一起,阐明了致灾因子的危险性评价理论;在公路系统脆弱性评估的基础上,构建了适用于寒区公路系统的风吹雪灾害风险评估体系.通过此体系对黑龙江省2017年2月份内的风吹雪事件进行评估,并将预测结果与省气象信息中心发布的道路预警进行对比.结果表明:研究区公路网在评价时段内相对风险等级最高的是鹤岗-伊春线、绥化-大庆线的绥化段、哈同公路的哈尔滨和佳木斯段以及牡丹江市周边,其相对风险概率大于0.69,需要对此路段多加关注.该研究在一定程度上为今后寒区公路网的雪灾救援及物资配置提供了参考,使得寒区防灾减灾任务更加具有针对性.

Due to the large scale and long term of snow disaster in highway of the cold regions,the highway system in Heilongjiang Province and its frequent snowdrift disasters were taken as research objects to explore the macro conditions of disaster formation from the aspect of disaster occurrence mechanism.Based on the probability theory,the possibility,level and intensity of the hazard were linked to clarify the theory of hazard assessment through the joint probability density function of the influencing factors.After finishing the vulnerability assessment of highway transportation network,the snowdrift disaster risk assessment system suitable for cold highway network was constructed.The snowdrift events in February 2017 were evaluated,and compared the prediction results with the road warning issued by the Provincial Meteorological Information Center during this period.The results show that the highest relative risk of the road in the study area during the period is the Hegang−Yichun line,the Suihua section of the Suihua−Daqing line,the Harbin and Jiamusi sections of the Harbin−Tongjiang line,and the surrounding areas of Mudanjiang City.Their relative risk probability is more than 0.69,We need to pay more attention to this section.To a certain extent,this study provides a reference for snow disaster relief and material allocation of highway network in cold regions in the future,and makes the task of disaster prevention and mitigation in cold regions more targeted.