地铁车站建设投资智能预测与控制方法研究

Research on the Intelligent Forecast and Control Method of Metro Station Construction Investment

研究目的:以成都地铁为研究载体,针对地铁车站建设极易出现的投资失控问题,将行业前沿的BIM可视化技术与计算机辅助管理手段综合集成余弦相似度算法、BP神经网络、挣值法和PDCA循环,提出一种地铁车站建设投资的智能预测与控制方法。研究结论:(1)分析并提取地铁车站建设投资工程特征指标,构建已完地铁车站项目建设投资基础数据库,为后续研究提供数据支持;(2)将余弦相似度算法与BP神经网络相结合,建立地铁车站建设投资智能预测模型,预测精度高,可满足投资目标预测要求;(3)采用挣值法、PDCA循环和BIM技术对地铁车站建设投资进行动态可视化控制,进一步开发了基于BIM辅助管理的地铁车站建设投资动态智能控制系统,可辅助建设管理者实施投资控制与管理决策;(4)本研究可为地铁车站建设投资管理提供参考。

Research purposes:Taking Chengdu metro as a research carrier,aiming at the problem of out-of-control investment for the construction of the metro station,this paper proposes an intelligent prediction and control method for construction investment in metro station based on the industry-leading BIM visualization technology,computer-aided management integrated cosine similarity algorithm,BP neural network,earning value method,and PDCA cycle.Research conclusions:(1)Analyze and extract the characteristic indexes of metro station construction investment projects,construct a basic database of completed metro station construction investment projects,and provide data support for subsequent research.(2)Combine the cosine similarity algorithm with the BP neural network to establish an intelligent prediction model for metro station construction investment,which has high prediction accuracy and meets the investment target prediction requirements.(3)The earned value method,PDCA cycle and BIM technology are used to dynamically visualize the investment in metro station construction,and the dynamic intelligent control system for metro station construction investment based on BIM-assisted management is further developed,which can assist construction managers to implement investment control and management decision.(4)This research result can provide a reference for investment management in metro station construction.