“一带一路”沿线国家交通基础设施改善的贸易效应研究

The Effect of Transportation Infrastructure Improvement on Bilateral Trade of Countries Along the Belt and Road

基础设施互联互通作为“一带一路”倡议中的优先领域,对于沿线国家的贸易开展至关重要。研究结果表明:“一带一路”沿线国家交通基础设施改善对双边贸易有显著的正向作用;航空、港口、公路等不同类型基础设施改善对双边贸易均有显著的正向促进效应。在经过稳健性检验与内生性讨论后,该结论依然成立。本文通过对时间维度和国家经济特征维度的异质性分析,发现“一带一路”倡议提出后,沿线国家的交通基础设施改善显著地正向促进了双边贸易,且对于经济水平较低的发展中国家而言,交通基础设施改善的贸易效应更加明显。

As a priority area in the"Belt and Road Initiative",infrastructure interconnection is vital to the trade development of countries along the route.The research results show that the quality of the transportation infrastructure of the countries along the“Belt and Road”has a positive and significant effect on the volume of bilateral trade.Among them,the quality of aviation,port,and highway infrastructure has a positive and significant effect on bilateral trade.After the robustness test and the endogenous test,this conclusion is still valid.The analysis of heterogeneity found that after the"Belt and Road Initiative"was put forward,the quality of the transportation infrastructure of the countries along the route is promoting bilateral trade,and this promotion is more obvious for developing countries with backward economic levels.