中国对RCEP国家机电产品出口的影响因素与贸易潜力测算——基于扩展的贸易引力模型的实证分析

Influencing Factors and Trade Potential Calculation of China’s Export of Electromechanical Products to RCEP Countries——An Empirical Analysis Based on Extended Gravity Model of Trade

RCEP生效将有利于实现我国出口市场多元化、自由化与便利化,机电产品作为我国贸易出口的第一大类,RCEP中的关税减让等条例将促进我国机电产品出口。但目前鲜有学者关注RCEP国家与中国机电产品出口的现状,因此本文选取2010-2019年中国与RCEP国家的相关数据,结合扩展贸易引力模型,运用Stata.15分析中国对RCEP国家机电产品出口的影响因素并测算出可能的贸易潜力。实证结果表明,RCEP与中国的经济规模对机电产品出口的影响程度最显著,贸易潜力指数结果显示,中国对文莱和新西兰的机电产品出口潜力巨大,我国机电出口企业应根据RCEP国家的贸易潜力级别,采取多元化的出口战略。

The entry into force of RCEP is conducive to diversifying,liberalizing and facilitating China’s export market. Regulations on tariff concessions in RCEP will promote the export of electromechanical products,which rank the first on the category of China’s trade exports.At present,few scholars make researches on the export of machinery and electronic products between RCEP countries and China. Based on relevant trade data between the two sides from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses extended gravity model of trade and STATA.15 to analyze the influencing factors of China’s export of electromechanical products to RCEP countries and calculate the possible trade potential. Empirical results show that the size of a country ’ economies has the most significant impact in this respect. The trade potential index results show that China ’s export potential of electromechanical products to Brunei and New Zealand is quite huge. Therefore,Chinese enterprises concerned should adopt diversified export strategies according to different trade potential of RCEP countries.