1961-2020年 黄河流域气候变化特征研究

Characteristics of Climate Change in the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2020

基于19612020年黄河流域九省(区)72个气象台站的地面观测资料,采用气候倾向率和反距离权重插值等方法,分析了黄河流域气候要素的时空变化特征及在19611990、19712000、19812010、19912020年等4个气候基准期的演变特征,以直观反映气候变化对黄河流域的影响。结果表明,研究期间黄河流域气温在空间上总体呈现东高西低、南高北低的分布特征,从时间上看表现为极显著升高趋势。降水总体呈下降趋势,年降水量气候倾向率为-0.85 mm·10a^(-1),年降水量在空间上呈现南高北低的纬向分布特征;年降水日数气候倾向率为-1.88天·10a^(-1),年降水日数呈西南高北部低的空间分布特征。光照总体呈下降趋势,年日照时数气候倾向率为-33 h·10a^(-1),年日照时数在空间上表现为西南高东南低的分布特征;年太阳辐射气候倾向率为-39 MJ·m^(-2)·10a^(-1),年太阳辐射呈西部高东南低的空间分布特征。近60年来黄河流域总体呈现暖干变暗的过程,但干湿变化特征在区域间差异较大,上游地区整体呈暖湿化特征,而中游和下游地区呈暖干化特征。对比4个气候基准期发现,前3个气候基准期整体呈暖干变暗的过程,而第4个气候基准期表现为暖湿变暗的过程。

By using the methods of climate tendency rate and inverse distance weighted interpolation,and the surface observation data of 72 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2020,this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of climatic elements and their evolutions in the four climatic base periods of 19611990,19712000,19812010 and 19912020 so as to directly illustrate the impact of climate change on the Yellow River Basin.The results show that the spatial distribution of temperature in the Yellow River Basin is generally higher in the east and the south but lower in the west and in the north;in the temporal scale,it presents a significant increasing trend during the past 60 years.The total precipitation has been in a declining trend.The climate tendency rate of annual precipitation is-0.85 mm·(10a)^(-1)and the spatial distribution of annual precipitation shows a zonal pattern,higher in the south but lower in the north.The climate tendency rate of precipitation days is-1.88 d·(10a)^(-1)and the annual precipitation days are more in the southwest than in the north.The sunshine factor generally shows a declining trend.The climate tendency rate of sunshine hours is-33 h·(10a)^(-1)and the spatial distribution of annual sunshine hours is higher in the southwest than in the southeast.The climate tendency rate of solar radiation was-39 MJ·m^(-2)·(10a)^(-1)and the annual solar radiation deceased from west to southeast.The Yellow River Basin has experienced a process of warming,drying and darkening in the past 60 years,but the characteristics of wetting and drying vary greatly in different regions.The upper reaches of Yellow River Basin show the warming and wetting trend,and the middle and lower reaches have the warming and drying trend.The comparison of the four climate base stages suggest that the first three present a process of warming,drying and darkening,while the fourth has a warming and wetting to darkening process.