利用最大熵模型预测贵州省南方红豆杉潜在适宜区

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Taxus Mairei in Guizhou Province by Maximum Entropy Model

为保护贵州省南方红豆杉种源区以及为规划南方红豆杉人工栽植提供可靠依据,应用Maxent模型预测国家一级保护植物南方红豆杉潜在的分布区。研究过程中整理了214个南方红豆杉自然分布地点和19个生境因子。研究结果表明:①模型的样本训练集和测试集的AUC值分别是0.913和0.923,模型评估的总体精度表明优秀;②各季节降水量变异系数(Bio 15)、温度全年波动范围(Bio 7)、最干月降水量(Bio 14)3个生境因子为影响贵州省南方红豆杉潜在分布区主导因子,3个关键因子适宜性范围分别为58~85、27~31℃、29~39 mm,最适宜值依次为65、29.5℃、34.5 mm;③贵州省南方红豆杉潜在适宜性区域总面积12 197.9 km,含高度适宜性区域1 358.85 km^(2),中度适宜性区域10 839.05 km^(2);④贵州省南方红豆杉高度适宜区域的海拔范围为783~2 172 m,平均海拔1 120 m,中度适宜区域的海拔范围为315~2 418 m,平均海拔1 120 m。

In order to protect the provenance area of Taxus mairei and provide reliable basis for planning artificial planting of Taxus mairei, Maxent model was used to predict the potential distribution area of Taxus mairei, a national first-class protected plant. During the study, 214 natural distribution sites and 19 habitat factors of Taxus mairei were sorted out. The results show that:① The AUC values of the training set and test set of the model are 0.913 and 0.923 respectively, and the overall accuracy of the model evaluation shows excellent;② Three habitat factors, i.e. seasonal variation coefficient of precipitation(Bio 15), annual temperature fluctuation range(Bio 7) and driest monthly precipitation(Bio 14), are the dominant factors affecting the potential distribution area of Taxus mairei in Guizhou Province. The suitability ranges of the three key factors are 58~85, 27~31℃ and 29~39 mm, respectively, and the optimum values are 65, 29.5 ℃and 34.5 mm in turn;③The potential suitability area of Taxus mairei in Guizhou is 12 197.9 km^(2),including 1 358.85 km^(2) of high suitability area and 10 839.05 km^(2) of moderate suitability area;The altitude range of the high suitable area is 783~2 172 m, the average altitude is 1 120 m, the altitude range of the middle suitable area is 315~2 418 m, and the average altitude is 1 120 m.