京沪线民航与高铁的市场现状研究

Research on the Current Market Situation of Civil Aviation and High-speed Rail on the Beijing-Shanghai Line

文章着重研究京沪线上民航与高铁的市场现状及航空资源配置问题。首先,通过对实行浮动票价政策下的京沪高铁和京沪航线发展现状进行分析;其次,围绕班次、票价以及在途时间三大指标,分析京沪线民航与高铁各自市场竞争的优劣势;最后,基于S—曲线对比分析京沪航线上共同承运人进行资源配置的现状。研究表明:京沪航线与高铁相比,运营时间长、航班频率快、旅客时间成本少;航空旅客提前一周购票价格约为提前一天购票价格的50%,且非早高峰期外与京沪高铁票价相差20%,两者具有一定的竞争力;京沪高铁自实行浮动票价政策后,整体平均利润提升了0.7%左右;国航和海航在京沪航线上资源配置得到充分利用,而东航资源配置与理想最优状态还存在8.1%的差距。

The thesis focuses on the current market situation of civil aviation and high-speed rail on the Beijing-Shanghai line with the allocation of aviation resources.Firstly,by analyzing the current situation of the development of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail and Beijing-Shanghai airline under the implementation of floating fare policy;secondly,it analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the respective market competition between civil aviation and high-speed railway on the Beijing-Shanghai route based on the three major indicators of frequency,fare and time in transit;finally,the current situation of resource allocation by common carriers on the Beijing-Shanghai route is analyzed based on S-curve comparison.The study shows that:the Beijing-Shanghai route has longer operating time,faster flight frequency and less time cost for passengers compared with high-speed rail;the price of tickets purchased by air passengers one week in advance is about 50%of the price of tickets purchased one day in advance,and there is a 20%difference in fares with Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail outside the non-morning peak period,so the two are competitive;the overall average profit of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail has increased by about 0.7%since the implementation of floating fare policy;Air China and Hainan Airlines have Air China and Hainan Airlines have made full use of their resource allocation on the Beijing-Shanghai route,while there is still a gap of 8.1%between the resource allocation of China Eastern Airlines and the ideal optimal state.