浙江省居民杠杆率影响因素及适度性研究

Research on the Influencing Factors and Moderation of Zhejiang’s Household Leverage Ratio

本文在系统阐述和论证住户部门杠杆率变化影响经济运行机理的基础上,实证分析浙江省居民杠杆率现状和主要影响因素,并建立门限面板回归模型量化测算了居民杠杆率的合理水平。结果显示:一是浙江省居民杠杆率水平整体偏高,且存在着地市差距较大,结构不平衡等问题;二是浙江省居民杠杆率存在着空间联系,且企业杠杆率、房地产投资等因素对居民杠杆率有重要的推动作用;三是在门限面板研究中发现,浙江省居民杠杆率存在两个门限值,分别为35.87%和64.64%。随着浙江省居民杠杆率的增加,居民杠杆率对经济增长从显著的促进作用变得不明显,再逐渐呈现抑制的作用。当居民杠杆率超过64.64%,会对浙江省经济增长产生抑制作用。

On the basis of explaining and demonstrating the impact of changes in the household leverage on the economic operation, an empirical study was conducted to analyze the household leverage ratio of Zhejiang province. The main influencing factors are analyzed through a spatial econometric model, and a panel threshold regression model is established to estimate the reasonable level of the household leverage ratio. The results show that: firstly, the overall level of Zhejiang’s household leverage ratio is relatively high, and there are problems such as large gaps between different cities, structural imbalances, etc.;Secondly, there is a spatial relation between the leverage ratio of residents in Zhejiang Province, and factors such as corporate leverage ratio and real estate investment play an important role in promoting the household leverage ratio. Thirdly, it can be found from the panel threshold regression model that there are two thresholds for the leverage ratio of residents in Zhejiang Province, which are 35.87% and 64.64%. The conclusion is that with the increase in household leverage in Zhejiang Province,the significant promotion effect of the household leverage on economic growth has become weaker, and then gradually shows a restraining effect. In addition, when the household leverage ratio exceeds 64.64%,it will hinder Zhejiang’s economic growth.