基于QMU的高空电磁脉冲下电气电子设备易损性评估方法

Threat assessment method based on quantification of margins and uncertainties for electrical electronic equipment under high-altitude electromagnetic pulse

高空电磁脉冲(HEMP)可能造成广域基础设施的故障或损毁,考虑到经济原因,需要科学合理地评估其中关键电气电子设备在HEMP辐照下的易损性。将不确定性量化与设备效应评估相结合,总结出基于裕量与不确定性量化(QMU)的电气电子设备易损性评估方法及其工作流程,包括:筛选设备关键参数,通常为耦合通道电流、电压的范数;通过HEMP环境及其与设备耦合的数值仿真及不确定性量化,得到HEMP下设备关键参数的概率分布,作为设备的威胁水平;对工作状态下设备进行HEMP效应试验,通过统计推断得到设备效应阈值概率分布,作为设备在威胁下的强度;计算威胁水平与设备强度间的距离,量化设备关键参数的裕量及其不确定性,评估HEMP下的设备易损性。基于QMU的电气电子设备易损性评估方法还可为后续防护设计提供基础数据和评估方法。

High altitude electromagnetic pulse(HEMP)may cause failure or damage to wide-area infrastructure.For economic reasons,it is necessary to evaluate the vulnerability of key electrical and electronic equipment under HEMP This study combines uncertainty quantification with equipment effect assessment.Based on the idea of margins and uncertainties quantification(QMU),this paper summarizes the procedures of vulnerability assessment method for electrical and electronic equipment based on QMU.First,select the key parameters of the equipment,usually the norm of coupling channel current and voltage;Second,obtain the probability distribution of key parameters under HEMP as the stress of equipment by numerical simulation and uncertainty quantification;Then,carry out the HEMP effect test and estimate the probability distribution of equipment effect threshold as the strength of the equipment;Finally,by calculating the Euclidean distance between stress and strength of the equipment,calculate the QMU metric and evaluate the equipment vulnerability by the QMU method.This study uses an example to illustrate the feasibility and procedure of the vulnerability assessment method based on QMU.