美国加征进口关税对中国企业出口的影响——基于出口企业的生产动态视角

The Impact of the United States’ Imposing Import Tariffs on the Exports of Chinese Companies——Based on the Perspective of Exporting Companies’ Production Dynamics

自2018年以来,中美贸易争端的加剧已经成为影响中国整体经济发展较大的外部不稳定因素。本文利用2019年《中国失业率调查&2019年专项调查》所得的企业样本数据,以美国对华实行的第一批和第二批关税清单为例,运用双重差分模型从出口企业的生产动态角度考察了关税加征信号与关税加征政策实际落地对我国对美出口企业的影响。研究结果表明:(1)受中美贸易摩擦加征关税预期的影响,2018年上半年中国对美出口企业的产量比内贸企业产量的提升幅度更大,同时,在这些对美出口企业中,处于关税加征行列的企业产量的提升幅度更为明显;(2)2018年下半年以及2019年上半年关税加征政策的实际落地在总体上并未对对美出口企业的产量产生显著影响,但却对位于关税加征行列企业的产量表现出显著的正向影响。其中,由于不同省份政府支持政策不同,浙江省对美出口企业的产量上升最为明显。

Since 2018, the aggravation of Sino-US trade disputes has become a major external unstable factor affecting overall economic development in China. The paper uses the company sample data obtained in the 2019 "China Unemployment Rate Survey & 2019 Special Survey", taking the first and second batches of tariff lists implemented by the United States against China for example, and using the double difference model from export companies. From the perspective of production dynamics, it examines the impacts of the tariff increase signal and the actual implementation of the tariff increase policy on China’s export companies to the United States. The results of the study show that:(1)Affected by the expectation of additional tariffs due to the Sino-US trade friction, the output of Chinese exporting companies to the U.S. increased by a larger margin than the output of domestic trading companies in the first half of 2018. At the same time, among these exporting companies to the U.S., the increase in the output of enterprises in the ranks of tariff increase is more obvious;(2)The actual implementation of the tariff increase policy in the second half of 2018 and the first half of 2019 did not have a significant impact on the output of U.S. export companies on the whole, but it has a significant positive impact on the realization of the output of enterprises in the ranks of tariff increase. Among them, due to the different government support policies of different provinces, the output of Zhejiang export enterprises to the United States has increased the most obviously.