直接融资发展对“卢卡斯悖论”的消解作用——基于细分渠道跨区域资本流动的研究

The Role of Direct Financing Development in the Resolution of the “Lucas Paradox”

发展直接融资,实现资源优化配置是建设高标准市场体系的应有之义。随着我国金融市场的发展,跨区域资本流动渠道日益多样化、复杂化,不同渠道的跨区域资本流动是否存在"卢卡斯悖论"?直接融资发展是否能够消解"卢卡斯悖论"现象,实现资源优化配置?本文从股市、债市、银行和财政四个细分渠道跨区域资本流动的视角出发,探究了直接融资发展对"卢卡斯悖论"的作用机制,发现直接融资的发展能够消解"卢卡斯悖论"现象,优化跨区域资本配置。具体而言,不同渠道的跨区域资本流动对"卢卡斯悖论"现象的贡献不同,从而导致了"卢卡斯悖论"现象随时间而动态变化,并且在不同地区呈现显著差异。股市、债市渠道资金与资本回报率正向流动,这一正向关系随时间显著增强,由此削弱了资本流动的"卢卡斯悖论"现象;银行、财政渠道资金与资本回报率逆向流动,存在资本流动的"卢卡斯悖论"现象,但这一反向关系随时间明显削弱。市场化程度更高的地区资本流动的"卢卡斯悖论"现象更弱,直接融资对"卢卡斯悖论"现象的消解作用更强。

The development of direct financing and the realization of optimized allocation of resources are what it means to build a high-standard market system. Since 2010, cross-regional capital flow channels have become increasingly diversified and complex. Is there a “Lucas Paradox” in cross-regional capital flow through different channels? Can the development of direct financing resolve the “Lucas Paradox” phenomenon and achieve optimal allocation of resources? From the perspective of cross-regional capital flows in four sub-channels of stock markets, bond markets, banks, taxes and transfer payments, this article explores the mechanism of direct financing development on the “Lucas Paradox” and finds that the development of direct financing can alleviate the “Lucas Paradox”. Specifically, different channels of cross-regional capital flows have different contributions to the “Lucas Paradox” phenomenon, resulting in the “Lucas Paradox” phenomenon changing dynamically over time. A positive relationship exists between return on capital and capital flows in stock and bond markets, and this relationship has been significantly strengthened over time, which weakens the “Lucas Paradox” phenomenon of capital flows. The “Lucas Paradox” phenomenon of capital flow is weaker in regions with higher degree of marketization, and in these regions direct financing has a stronger effect on resolving the “Lucas Paradox” phenomenon.