欧盟碳边境调节机制对中国出口的影响与对策建议

The Impact of EU Carbon Tariff Policy on China’s Export and Suggestions for China

2021年7月,欧洲议会公布了碳边境调节机制的提案,计划自2023年起逐步引入碳边境调节税,并于2026年起实施。欧盟碳边境调节机制表面上是防止碳泄露,实则是保护传统产业竞争力的同时通过绿色产业带动欧盟经济复苏,抢占国际气候规则制定的主动权。在实施过程中,欧盟碳边境调节机制将面临法律和技术层面双重挑战,对此欧盟进行了一系列制度设计。本文基于欧盟的征收标准和征收范围,测算了欧盟对中国各行业拟加征的碳边境调节税率,分析了对中国各行业出口的影响。结果发现:欧盟碳边境调节税增加了中国各行业的出口成本,其中对化学工业等七大行业影响较大。对此,政府和企业应该未雨绸缪,通过完善中国碳排放交易市场等措施,针对性地应对欧盟碳边境调节机制造成的可能冲击。

In March 2021,the European Parliament approved the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,which plans to impose carbon tariffs on imports from the EU starting from 2023.The imposition of carbon tariffs by the EU is bound to have an impact on China.Firstly,the authors analyze the evolution of carbon tariffs,the deep-seated reasons for the EU to impose carbon tariffs and the challenges it faces.Secondly,the authors calculate the carbon dioxide emitted by China’s domestic industries,and use the input-output model to calculate the carbon implicit in China’s exports to the EU and the world.Based on the possible EU levy standard and range,the proposed EU carbon tariff rate on Chinese industries and the average profit rate of Chinese industries is calculated.The results show that the EU carbon tariff increases the export cost of various industries of China,among which the chemical industry and other seven industries bear the brunt.Finally,the authors propose countermeasures and suggestions to effectively deal with the EU carbon tariff and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in the future.