21世纪以来俄罗斯人口增长与空间分布格局变化

Population growth and spatial distribution pattern of Russia since the 21st century

在"一带一路"与"中蒙俄经济走廊"倡议的背景下,利用人口增减变化率、人口重心、人口密度变化率、人口地理集中度、人口商度等研究21世纪以来俄罗斯的人口增长与空间分布格局变化。结果表明:(1)21世纪以来,俄罗斯人口经历了先降后增的变化过程;中央区的人口显著上升,伏尔加、西伯利亚与远东区均呈下降趋势;莫斯科、圣彼得堡、乌拉尔区、北高加索区南端的联邦主体人口快速增加,西伯利亚区多数联邦主体人口缓慢增加,远东东部、莫斯科外围地域、伏尔加区多数联邦主体的人口缓慢减少,西北区北端联邦主体的人口急剧减少。(2)俄人口空间分布格局变化主要受地区间人口迁移流动的影响。空间上,俄人口重心不断朝西北向迁移,莫斯科市与圣彼得堡市的人口密度快速增加,远东与东西伯利亚区的人口密度缓慢降低,强化了俄人口分界线——"圣彼得堡-图瓦线"。以"圣图线"为界,俄"西密东疏""欧洲密、亚洲疏"的格局短期不会改变,整体呈"一横、四纵、两团"及若干区域人口集团的空间结构。

Under the background of "the Belt and Road" and "the economic corridor of China,Mongolia and Russia" initiatives, the paper evaluated the population growth trend of the Russia from different scales, then analyzed the change of population spatial pattern in Russia using the methods of the population gravity center change and the population density change. Next the paper summarized the characteristics and structure of the current Russian population distribution pattern. Finally, based on the perspective of inter regional migration, this paper explained the reasons why the Russia’s population spatial pattern changed. The results are as following. First,from 1992 to 2007, the population of Russia shows a decreasing trend. But the population of Russia has been growing since 2008. In the eight Russian federal districts, the Central Federal District’s population has been growing, while the population of Volga Federal District, Siberian Federal District and Far East Federal District has been decreasing. In the eighty-three Russian federal subjects, the population of Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the federal subjects where are in the Ural Federal District, and south of North-Caucasian Federal District has been increasing rapidly. The population of the federal subjects where are in the Siberian Federal District has been growing slowly. The population of the federal subjects where are around Moscow Region, in the east of Far East Federal District, and in the Volga Federal District has been decreasing slowly.The population of the federal subjects where are in the north of North West Federal District has been decreasing rapidly. Second, the inter regional migration of Russian population is main factor that affects the change of population spatial pattern in Russia. Spatially, Russia’s population gravity centre has moved to the northwest direction. The population density of Moscow and St.Petersburg has been increasing rapidly, while that of Siberian Federal District and Far East Federal District has been decreasing slowly. These phenomenon strengthen the formation of Russian population boundary line—"St. Petersburg-Tyva Republic line". The population concentration of the federal subjects located at the southwest side of "St. Petersburg-Tyva Republic line" line is higher than that of the federal subjects on the northeast side of "St. Petersburg-Tyva Republic line. Finally, the current Russia’s population shows the "High West, Low East" and "High Europe, Low Asia" spatial pattern, which in general displays a tendency of space attenuation from the western Europe to eastern Asia. It also shows the "one horizontal, four vertical, two regiments and several regional groups" spatial structure, which one horizontal refers to the Trans-Siberian railway, four vertical refer to the four Russian inland rivers, and two regiments refer to the Moscow urban agglomeration and St. Petersburg urban agglomeration.