中国赴俄旅游网络关注度时空差异及成因分析

Spatio-temporal difference and influencing factors of network attention to Russia in China

基于百度指数获取2014—2018年中国大陆31个省份对俄罗斯旅游相关关键词的网络关注度数据,采用基尼系数、首位度、季节性集中指数、地理探测器等方法,分析中国赴俄网络关注度的时空差异及其影响因素。结果表明:1)2014—2018年网络关注度与实际赴俄游客数呈正相关,5年间网络关注度增长迅猛,各月关注度则愈发均衡。2)网络关注度呈现东高西低、南高北低的特征,而网络关注度的季节性集中指数则相反;各省份网络关注度由极化分布转为相对均衡分布;各省份网络关注度的首位度不显著,北方地区最高。3)各省份网络关注度等级变化不大,东西部省份差异明显。高关注地区始终为广东、北京、上海、江苏、浙江,低关注地区以西部为主,形成甘肃-宁夏-青海-西藏连片分布的格局。4)经济发展水平、互联网普及度、国内旅游开放度是影响网络关注度空间分异的核心因素,城镇人口比重、赴俄交通便利程度、客源地夏季平均气温也起到重要作用。最后从加大互联网营销力度、推动开通直飞俄罗斯航线、开发个性化多元化旅游产品等方面提出对策建议,以期为中国赴俄旅游更好更快发展提供理论指导与实践启示。

Based on the baidu index data of 31 provinces in the mainland of China related to "Russian tourism" from 2014 to 2018. This paper analysis the spatial-temporal difference and influencing factors of network attention to Russia in China by using the methods of Gini coefficient, primacy, seasonal intensity index and geographical detector. The results show that:(1)From2014 to 2018, there is a positive correlation between the network attention and the actual number of tourists to Russia. In the past five years, the network attention has grown rapidly, and the network attention of each month has become more balanced;(2)The network attention is high in the East and the south, but low in the West and the north. While the seasonal intensity index is contrary to the distribution of network attention;The distribution of network attention in each province has changed from polarization distribution to relative equilibrium distribution;the primacy of network attention in each province is not significant, and the primacy in the northern region is the highest;(3)The level of network attention in each province has little change, and the difference between the eastern and western provinces is obvious. The areas of high concern are always Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, while the areas of low concern are mainly in the west, forming a continuous distribution pattern of Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai-Tibet;(4)The level of economic development, the popularity of the Internet and the openness of domestic tourism are core factors affecting the spatial differentiation. The proportion of urban population, the degree of convenient transportation to Russia and the average temperature in summer in tourist source areas also play an important role. Finally, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of increasing Internet marketing, promoting the opening of direct flights to Russia, and developing personalized diversified tourism products, so as to provide theoretical guidance and practical enlightenment for the development of China’s tourism to Russia.