危机冲击下产业集群韧性演化与提升路径研究

Research on the Evolution and Improvement Path of Industrial Clusters’Resilience under the Impact of Crisis

在新冠肺炎疫情加剧全球产业链、供应链动荡的背景下,产业集群韧性的提升具有重要的现实意义。结合2008~2013年中国工业企业数据与2008~2018年332个城市基础数据,文章从理论上探讨产业集群韧性演化机制,在此基础上构建产业集群韧性测度指标,并运用MGWR模型对集群韧性提升路径进行了分析。研究发现:(1)产业集群相较于一般经济体,因集群企业间的网络结构,产业集群应对冲击的吸收能力弱、适应能力强,恢复更新的能力较强;(2)在吸收期起正向作用的因素为产业相关多样性,在适应期与恢复更新期起正向作用的因素为产业结构多样性,冲击发生后的适应期是政府、社会援助的关键时期;(3)发展程度较低的产业集群应着重加强产业间的关联,较成熟的产业集群应从提高产业结构多样性入手,完善新产业的进入机制、加强创新并控制风险传导。

As COVID-19 intensifies the turbulence of the global industrial chain and supply chain,improving the resilience of industrial clusters has important practical significance.Combining the data of Chinese industrial enterprises from 2008 to 2013 and the basic data of 332 cities from 2008 to 2018,based on the theoretical discussion of the evolution mechanism of the resilience of industrial clusters,this paper constructs the resilience measurement index of industrial clusters,and uses the MGWR model to analyze the improvement path of cluster resilience.The study found that:(1)Compared with the general economy,industrial clusters have weak absorption capacity and strong adaptability to shocks due to the network structure between cluster enterprises,and have a stronger ability to recover and renew.(2)The factor that plays a positive role in the absorption period is industry-related diversity,and the factor that plays a positive role in the adaptation and recovery periods is the diversity of industrial structure.The adaptation period after the impact is a critical period for government and social assistance.(3)The less developed industrial clusters should focus on strengthening the inter-industry linkages,and more mature industrial clusters should start with increasing the diversity of industrial structures,improve the entry mechanism of new industries,strengthen innovation,and control risk transmission.