中国数字经济增加值规模测算及结构分析

Scale Measurement and Structural Analysis of the Value-Added of China’s Digital Economy

基于数字技术/ICT渗透性、替代性、协同性特征,厘清“替代效应”“协同效应”等数字经济价值创造机制,将数字经济划分为“数字产业化”和“产业数字化”两部分,使用国民经济核算、增长核算和计量分析等工具,测算中国数字经济增加值规模并分析其结构特征。结果表明:(1)1993-2018年,中国数字经济增加值年均增长17.72%,2018年达157761.53亿元,占全年GDP的17.16%,是中国经济增长的重要支撑;(2)1993年以来,“数字产业化”和“产业数字化”两部分贡献的增加值均保持快速增长,2018年两部分规模分别为7.3万亿元和8.5万亿元;(3)数字产业化方面,“ICT制造业”“软件和信息技术服务业”作为数字经济的基础将长期处于主体地位并保持高速增长;以电子商务、数字媒体等为代表的新兴部门快速增长,是未来发展的重点;(4)ICT渗透效应总体发挥还很不充分,“产业数字化”在传统行业增加值中平均占比仅为9.74%,17个细分行业有6个占比在5%以下,仅4个占比超过平均水平,加大ICT对传统行业渗透应成为加快数字经济发展的重要方向。

On the basis of digital technology/ICT’s features of pervasiveness,substitution and synergy,we clarify the value creation mechanisms of the digital economy,including the substitution effect and synergy effect.Our study divides the digital economy into "digital industrialization"and "industrial digitalization,"using tools such as national economic accounting,growth accounting and econometric analysis to measure the scale and analyze the structural characteristics of China’s digital economy.Our findings show that:(1)from 1993 to 2018,the value-added of China’s digital economy grew at an average annual rate of 17.72 percent,reaching15.776153 trillion yuan in 2018 and accounting for 17.16 percent of annual GDP,constituting important support for China’s economic growth;(2)since 1993,the value-added contribution of both the digital industrialization and industrial digitalization sectors has been growing rapidly,with the size of the two sectors standing at 7.3 trillion yuan and 8.5 trillion yuan respectively in 2018;(3)in terms of digital industrialization,ICT manufacturing and software and ICT services,as the basis of the digital economy,will remain dominant for a long time and maintain a high growth rate.Emerging sectors such as e-commerce and digital media are growing rapidly and are a priority for future development;and(4)the overall pervasiveness effect of ICT is still insufficient.The average share of industrial digitalization in the value-added of traditional industries is only 9.74 percent:six out of the seventeen sub-sectors have a share of less than 5 percent,and only four have an above-average share.Therefore,an important direction for accelerating the development of the digital economy should be increasing ICT penetration in traditional industries.