人员密集旅游区综合风险定量评估技术研究

Research on Comprehensive Quantitative Risk Assessment in Assembly Tourist Areas

为解决人员密集旅游区事故频发问题,本文采用风险矩阵与层次分析法相结合的方法,对其进行定量风险评估研究。通过风险影响因素的辨识确定人员密集旅游区风险评估指标体系,并对风险矩阵评估方法进行改进,加入风险扩大因素——敏感性和风险控制减缓因素,再与层次分析法相结合,形成一个人员密集旅游区的综合性定量评估体系。以北京市八达岭长城人员密集旅游区为例验证本文改进的评估方法的合理性和有效性。结果表明:该人员密集旅游区从业人员的安全意识、应急能力比较强,但是在游客安全意识和技能、游客容量、应急演练和安全培训等方面的安全管理需进一步提高。实践证明此评估方法评估结果更符合实际情况。

In order to resolve the problem of frequent accidents in assembly tourist areas,in this paper,the risk matrix was combined with the analytic hierarchy process to assess the risk quantitatively.The risk assessment index system of assembly tourist areas was established by identifying the risk influence factors.The risk matrix assessment method was improved by adding risk expansion factors-sensitivity and risk control mitigation factors,which was combined with the analytic hierarchy process to form a comprehensive quantitative risk assessment system for assembly tourist areas.The Great Wall at Badaling was taken as an example to verify the rationality and validity of the improved assessment method.The results showed that employees in this assembly tourist area had relatively strong safety awareness and emergency response capabilities,but the safety awareness and skills of tourists and the safety management in tourists'capacity were needed to be further improved.The practice had proven that this assessment method was more realistic.