人工智能对就业需求的影响:基于劳动力结构视角

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Employment Demand:Based on the Perspective of Labor Structure

随着人工智能与机器人技术在生产和服务领域中广泛应用,物化于机器人中的技术升级对劳动力就业市场产生了深刻影响。基于劳动力结构视角,选取2012—2018年中国省级机器人与劳动力就业的面板数据,采用空间面板模型评估人工智能对劳动力市场就业的影响。研究结果表明:机器人应用显著降低了劳动力就业需求,在中国人口跨区域流动背景下,这种效应具有明显的空间外溢性;机器人应用引起的劳动力就业需求下降效应具有显著的结构性特征,这种效应在中、低技能群体中更为明显;人工智能对劳动力就业结构的影响效果存在显著的区域性差异。本研究为政府加大低技能群体职业技能培训投入及教育经费投入提供了经验支持,也为政府制定差异化的人工智能产业政策提供启示。

With the wide application of artificial intelligence and robot technology in the field of production and service,the technology upgrading of materialized robot has a profound impact on the labor market.Based on the perspective of labor structure,this paper selects the panel data of China s provincial robots and labor employment from 2012 to 2018,and uses the spatial panel model to evaluate the impact of artificial intelligence on labor market employment.The results show that the application of robots significantly reduces the employment demand of labor force,and this effect has obvious spatial spillover under the background of cross regional population flow in China.The labor employment substitution effect caused by robot application has significant structural characteristics,which is more obvious in the middle and low skilled groups.There are significant regional differences in the effect of artificial intelligence on labor employment structure.This study provides empirical support for the government to increase the investment in vocational skills training and education for low skilled groups,and also provides enlightenment for the government to formulate differentiated artificial intelligence industrial policies.