创新型企业预测性信息披露及其传播机理与风险承担

Predictive Information Disclosure,Dissemination Mechanism and Risk of Innovative Enterprises

本文实证检验了创新型企业预测性信息披露的市场影响,研究发现:创新型企业预测性信息披露与市场波动有着显著的正向关系。同时,负向业绩预告对市场波动有着更为显著的影响;互联网细分科技板块业绩预告对市场风险性有较显著的影响;非创新型代表板块的三农概念板块业绩预告并未产生显著的市场风险性影响。传播机制与中介效应检验结果表明:搜索、媒体和资讯是重要的信息传播中介形式。风险承担机制检验发现:相应风险主要由投资者承担,由企业承担的检验结果并不显著。本文研究对于投资者、创新型企业和市场监管者关注预测性信息披露的风险性和对其进行规范提供研究支持。

The empirical study is made on the market effects of predictive information disclosure of innovative enterprises.It is found that there is a significant positive correlation between predictive information disclosure and market fluctuation of innovative enterprises. Moreover,negative earnings forecast has a more significant impact. The earnings forecasts of technology sector of the Internet segment have a significant impact on the market,while the forecasts of the non-innovative sector of agriculture concepts produce little impact on market risks.The dissemination mechanism and the test results of mediating effect indicate that searching tools,media and information sharing tools are the important agents for information dissemination.Tests of risk taking mechanism indicate that investors take the most risks incurred,while enterprises undertake insignificant risks. The study offers references to investors,innovative enterprises and market supervisors in following and regulating the risks incurred by predicative information disclosure.