基于DID模型的中美贸易摩擦对我国进口美国天然气的影响研究

IMPACTS OF CHINA-US TRADE CONFLICT ON CHINA'S IMPORTED US-GAS BASED ON DID MODEL

选取2017年1月—2020年6月我国对9个国家的天然气进口量的月度数据,采用双重差分模型分析中美贸易摩擦对我国进口美国天然气的影响。分析得到,中美贸易摩擦对我国进口美国天然气产生了显著的负向影响。结合中美贸易摩擦发生的阶段以及我国对美国天然气征税的时间,将贸易摩擦分为6个阶段进行分析,得到随着贸易摩擦的不断推进,中美贸易摩擦对我国进口美国天然气的负向影响呈现阶段性特征。在稳健性检验中得到中美贸易摩擦未对我国自其他国家的天然气进口量产生显著影响。基于上述分析提出对策建议:1)积极应对贸易摩擦,寻找贸易逆差缩减突破点;2)制定阶段性贸易协定,应对中美关系不确定性;3)加强与其他天然气进口国的友好合作,为我国天然气进口安全提供保障。

This paper,based on China's imported gas data from nine countries during 2017 January to 2020 June,uses difference-in-difference(DID)model to analyze impacts of China-US trade conflict on China's imported US-gas with conclusion that the conflict has led to an obvious negative impact.This paper combines the conflicting stages with China's taxation time to divide the conflict into 6 stages.As the conflict develops,its impacts show staged features.Stability test reveals that this conflict does not exert large impacts on gas imported from other countries.This paper provides suggestions on actively dealing with trade conflict and diminishing trade adverse balance,making staged trade agreements to avoid the China-US uncertain relation,and boosting cooperation with other gas producers in order to secure China's gas imports.