震后应急救援民生保障物资需求模型研究

Research on the Requirement Model of People’s Livelihood for Earthquake Emergency and Rescue

根据《应急物资分类及编码》(GB/T 38565—2020),对震后所需应急救援民生保障物资种类进行梳理,参考地震应急处置经验和有关专家学者的研究成果,制定地震应急救援基本民生保障物资最低需求标准。对2007年以来有记录的物资投入数据进行梳理统计,采用数值拟合方法构建震后物资需求模型,计算震例模型值、标准值,并对实际值与模型值及实际值与标准值偏离程度进行对比分析,提出模型应用注意事项。

According to the national standard of the people’s Republic of China,Classification and Coding of Emergency Materials(GB/T 38565—2020),we sorted out the types of emergency rescue and people’s livelihood protection materials needed after the earth-quake,and formulated the minimum requirements standard of basic people’s livelihood supplies for earthquake emergency rescue with reference to the experience of earthquake emergency disposal and the research results of relevant experts and scholars.Based on the data of material input recorded since 2007,we constructed the material demand model by using numerical fitting method.The model re-quirements and standard requirements of the earthquake cases are calculated.The deviation of the model requirements from the actual requirements,and the deviation of the standard requirements from the actual requirements are compared.Some points for attention and consideration in the application of the model are put forward.The requirement model can provide references for the decision-making of emergency rescue materials allocation for earthquake emergency and rescue.are compared.Some points for attention and consideration in the application of the model are put forward.The requirement model can provide references for the decision-making of emergency rescue materials allocation for earthquake emergency and rescue.