考虑中长期水文预报的北方水库综合运用经济效益分析

Economic benefit analysis of North reservoir comprehensive utilization considering medium and long term hydrological forecast

本文论述了北方水库常用的中长期水文预报方法,结合水库的防洪和兴利功能,对综合运用经济指标进行经济评价分析,根据中长期水文预报来水情况及各需水用户的年度蓄水预测情况,制定科学的年度收入计划,采用多方法进行订正中长期预报结果,适时调整计划指标,从而更为科学、充分地发挥水库的综合效益。

This paper discusses the medium and long term hydrological forecast methods commonly used in northern reservoirs,and makes an economic evaluation and analysis on the comprehensive economic indicators in combination with the flood control and profit generating functions of reservoirs.According to the water inflow forecast of medium and long term hydrology and the annual water storage forecast of each water user,a scientific annual revenue plan is made,the result of medium and long term forecast is revised by multiple methods,and the plan index is adjusted timely,so as to bring the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir into full play more scientifically.