基于演化博弈的集体土地入股田园养老项目发展研究

Research on the Development of Rural Elderly Care Projects with Collective Land Shares Based on Evolutionary Game

随着人口老龄化加剧,城市养老负担加重,养老观念正在发生改变,城市老人渴望回归田园,健康快乐养老。田园养老关键问题是土地、社会资本、农民利益保障问题,因此针对集体土地作价入股田园养老项目构建演化博弈模型,通过仿真分析研究影响土地入股田园养老项目主体行为的因素,探讨博弈各方最优均衡策略。研究表明:政府、企业和农村集体经济组织受彼此参与意愿影响,企业和农村集体经济组织的双方合作与未来超额利润、政府的奖励惩罚、合作的运营风险有关。据研究结论提出相关建议,对于推进社会资本助力乡村振兴,大力推进田园养老新模式的发展有重要的现实意义。

With the intensification of population aging,the burden of urban elderly care has increased,and the concept of old-age care is changing,"healthy and happy elderly care"has become a major pursuit of urban elderly.Land,social capital,and protection of farmers'interests are key issues for rural elderly caring,therefore,this paper constructs an evolutionary game model for collective land pricing and taking part in rural elderly care project in the form of shares,through simulation analysis to study the factors that affect the behavior of the main body of the land equity investment in the pastoral care project,and explores the optimal equilibrium strategy of all parties in the game.Research shows that the government,enterprises,and rural collective economic organizations are affected by each other's willingness to participate.It is found that the cooperation between enterprises and rural collective-owned economic organizations is related to future excess profit,government rewards and punishments,and operational risks of cooperation.Based on this,the paper puts forward relevant suggestions,which are conducive to promoting social capital to assist rural revitalization and vigorously enhancing the development of a new model of rural elderly care.