堰塞湖应急处置方案评价方法及决策模型研究

Research on evaluation method and decision-making model of emergency disposal schemes for barrier lakes

堰塞湖溃决作为一种重大水旱灾害类型,具有突发性、不确定性、危害性、时间紧迫性等特征,其应急处置方案的决策仍以既有经验为主,决策成果的准确性和应急处置的成效性难以保障。利用情景推演法对堰塞湖险情的不同应急处置方案进行了推演,通过分析事前、事发、事中、事后的相关影响因素,构建了全面描述应急处置方案的评价指标体系及其量化标准,提出了基于改进熵权法的应急处置方案评价方法;从堰塞湖应急处置的必要性、可行性、方案优选与组合3个层次出发,建立了堰塞湖应急处置的多因素、多层次决策模型,并进行了实例分析,得到了符合实际的分析结果。可为今后类似堰塞湖险情的应急处置决策提供依据和参考。

As a major flood and drought disaster,barrier lake has the characteristics of suddenness,uncertainty,harmfulness,time urgency and so on.The decision-making of its emergency disposal schemes is still based on the existing experience,so,there existed uncertainties in the accuracy of decision and the effect of emergency manage⁃ment.In this paper,the scenario deduction method is used to deduce the different emergency disposal schemes of barrier lake disaster.The relevant influential factors before,during,and after the event are analyzed.The evaluation index system and quantitative standard for comprehensively describing the emergency disposal schemes are con⁃structed.The evaluation method of the schemes based on the improved entropy weight method is proposed.From 3 levels of necessity,feasibility and optimal selection of disposal schemes,a decision-making model based on multi factors and multi-levels for emergency disposal schemes of barrier lakes is established.A practical example is pro⁃vided accordingly,and the results were in accordance with the facts.The proposed evaluation method and decision making model of emergency disposal schemes of barrier lakes could be a basis and reference for emergency disposal decision-making of similar barrier lake disasters in the future.