基于非洲36国面板数据探析对非洲直接投资的影响因素

An Exploratory Analysis of Influencing Factors of Chinese Direct Investment in Africa Based on the Panel Data of 36 African Countries

随着中非经贸关系的日益密切,中国对非投资的动机也备受争议。针对中国对非直接投资是否受资源驱动、非洲国家政治风险是否限制中国对非投资两大争论,文章收集了36个非洲国家2006—2017年相关变量的面板数据,并通过因子分析提取了国内外军事文化冲突、社会经济秩序、政局稳定性、民主责任四大政治风险。通过建立中国对非直接投资与经济利益、政治风险的静态面板模型和动态面板模型,对其进行了混合分析(Pooled OLS;POLS)、随机效应分析(Radom Effect;RE)、固定效应分析(Fixed Effect;FE)和动态面板系统广义矩估计(System Generalized Method of Moment;SYS-GMM)。研究结果表明:①中国对非直接投资并未受资源驱动,更多是出于市场导向的考虑;②除非洲国家军事文化冲突存在较弱正向显著外,非洲国家的其余政治风险变量未明显表现出对中国直接投资有制约效应;③在控制变量方面,基础设施正向显著,通货膨胀率负向显著。

With the growing closeness of Sino-African economic and trade relationships,the Chinese motive for its investment in Africa is also highly controversial.In responses to the two controversies of whether the Chinese direct investment in Africa is resource-driven and whether the Chinese direct investment was constrained by political risks of Africa countries.This paper collects panel data of 36 African countries in 2006-2017,and uses the factor analysis to extract the four major political risks of military and cultural conflicts,socioeconomic order,political situation stability,and democracy responsibility.By establishing static panel model and dynamic panel model for the Chinese direct investment in Africa,economic interests and political risks,the study conducts the Pooled OLS analysis,random effect analysis,fixed effect analysis and System Generalized Method of Moment.The results show that:(1)The Chinese direct investment in Africa is more market-oriented instead of being resource-driven(2)The Chinese direct investment was not constrained strikingly by the other political risk variables of Africa countries except for the weak positive prominence of military and cultural conflicts at home and abroad(3)In terms of control variables,infrastructure was positively prominent and inflation was negatively prominent.