人口政策放开背景下房价对出生率影响研究

Research on the Influence of Housing Price on Birth Rate under the Circumstance of Liberalization of Population Policy

将31个省(市)分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类地区,基于2009-2018年面板数据,利用面板回归模型与加入房价与人口政策交互项的模型的对比分析人口政策放开前后房价对人口出生率的影响。结果表明:人口政策实施后,出生率没有明显上升,人口政策放开前后对比房价显著降低了居民生育意愿。据此提出政府应努力稳定房价提升生育意愿。

Divide 31 provinces(cities)intoⅠ,Ⅱ,andⅢregions.Based on the panel data from 2009 to 2018,the panel regression model and the model with the interaction term of housing price and population policy are used to analyze the effect of housing price on population before and after the liberalization of population policy.The impact of birth rate.The results show that after the implementation of the population policy,the birth rate has not risen significantly,and the comparison of housing prices before and after the liberalization of the population policy has significantly reduced residents’willingness to bear children.Accordingly,it is proposed that the government should strive to stabilize housing prices and increase willingness to bear children.