全球原木贸易网络格局演变与中国地位变迁

Evolution of global log trade network structure and transition of China’s status

【目的】厘清全球原木贸易网络的动态演化特征,为各国(地区)原木贸易决策提供参考。【方法】运用社会网络分析方法,从全局、局部和个体3个层面,对2000—2018年全球原木贸易网络的结构特征和格局演变进行分析,并从网络地位和贸易模式两个方面探讨中国在全球原木贸易网络中的地位变迁。【结果】研究结果表明,全球原木贸易网络规模不断拓展,网络内部贸易关系稀疏程度相对平稳,但平均贸易额上升明显。不同年份全球原木贸易网络的板块构成不同,板块内部联系趋于紧密,核心国家(地区)趋于“抱团”,但板块间联系逐渐减少,板块间“俱乐部”效应显著下降。不同国家(地区)的核心度变化趋势不同,中国、印度等国家(地区)核心度上升明显,中国于2011年超越美国,居于核心度首位,而美国、俄罗斯、法国等国家(地区)核心度则呈下降趋势;中国个体网络规模不断提升,“桥”的作用明显,但结构洞效应有所弱化。原木产业内贸易规模不断提升,贸易伙伴以“边缘型”国家(地区)为主。贸易逆差不断减小,进口依存度有所提升。【结论】各国(地区)应根据自身和整体网络特征,采取各种措施优化原木贸易网络,推动国际物流互联互通,优化贸易路线,减少运费成本,提高运输效率,为高效、便利、低成本的原木贸易营造良好的外部环境。中国作为原木需求最为旺盛的国家,要根据自身实际,采取有效措施提升自身在全球原木贸易网络中的话语权,不断优化原木贸易网络,降低对单个国家(地区)的进口依赖,维护国内木材安全。

【Objective】Clarifying the dynamic evolution of the global log trade network can provide references for decisions about log trade.【Method】This paper adopted the social network analysis method to analyze the dynamic evolution of the global log trade network from 2000 to 2018 from macro,meso,and micro perspectives.And explored the transition of China’s status on the network status and trade mode.【Result】The scale of the network continues to expand,and the sparseness of ties in the network has not changed much,while the average trade volume has increased significantly.The composition of the global log trade network is different in each year.The internal links in the blocks tend to be close,and the core countries(regions)tend to be“grouped”,but the links between the blocks are gradually reduced,and the“club”effect has decreased significantly.Different countries(regions)have different trends in coreness.Countries(regions)such as China and India have seen significant increases in coreness,and China surpassed the United States and ranked first in 2011.While the coreness of the United States,Russia,France and other countries(regions)has shown a downward trend;the scale of China’s ego network has continued to increase,and the role of“bridge”is obvious,while the structural hole effect has weakened.The scale of intra-industry trade in China’s log industry has increased,and trading partners are dominated by“peripheral”countries(regions).The trade deficit has continued to decrease and dependence degree of log import has increased.【Conclusion】Countries(regions)should take various measures to optimize the logs trade network based on their own and overall network characteristics,and promote international logistics interconnection,optimize trade routes to reduce freight costs,improve transportation efficiency,and create an efficient,convenient and low-cost environment for log trade.As the country with the strongest demand for logs,China should take effective measures to enhance its voice in the global log trade network based on its own reality,continuously optimize the log trade network,reduce dependence on import of individual countries(regions)to maintain domestic timber security.