贯穿型城市轨道交通新线开通初期线网客流预测方法研究

Passenger flow forecast method of passing-through type urban rail transit on the initial operating stage for new lines

贯穿型城市轨道交通新线通常涉及多个换乘站,对既有线网拓扑结构影响较大,相关客流指标均会发生变化。文章提出一种贯穿型城市轨道交通新线开通后的客流预测方法,该方法首先采用融合线网环境信息的A*算法,对城市轨道交通路径集计算方法进行改进。然后通过量化既有车站客流影响因素和新线车站类别属性,预测进出站客流,并采用双约束重力模型弥补新线相关OD数据,实现新线开通后的OD分布量预测。通过对东部某城市轨道交通5号线的开通进行建模预测,相关指标预测结果均在合理预期内,表明方法可行。

Passing-through urban rail lines often involve multiple transfer stations which has a greater impact on the topology of the existing metro line network and related passenger flow indicators will change.A passenger flow prediction method after the opening of a new penetrating line is proposed.The method first adopts the A*algorithm that integrates the environmental information of the metro line network to improve the calculation method of the set transit path.Then,by quantifying the influencing factors of passenger flow in existing stations and the attributes of the new line station category,predict the passenger flow in and out of the station.The double constraint gravity model makes new OD-relevant data and realize the forecast of OD distribution after the new line is opened.For the opening modeling prediction of rail transit line 5 in a certain eastern city,the index prediction results are all within reasonable expectations,indicating that the method is feasible.