我国电力碳达峰、碳中和路径研究

Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Path for China’s Power Industry

电力低碳转型对实现碳达峰、碳中和目标具有全局性意义。本文在电力碳预算评估的基础上构建深度低碳、零碳、负碳3类电力转型情景,研判电力需求等关键边界条件,构建路径规划优化模型;采用GESP-V软件包进行优化分析,确定不同情景下包含电源结构、电力碳排放、电力供应成本在内的电力低碳转型路径;探讨并剖析煤电发展定位、新能源发展利用、清洁能源多元化供应、电力平衡等实现电力系统低碳转型亟待解决的重大问题。研究建议,加强顶层设计,稳妥规划转型节奏,保障电力供应安全;加强绿色低碳重大科技攻关,统筹电力全链条技术与产业布局;优化完善利益平衡统筹兼顾的市场机制,加快建设绿色金融政策保障体系。通过政策、技术、机制协同,推动中长期我国电力低碳转型的高质量发展。

The low-carbon transformation of power sector is significant for achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China.Based on the evaluation of power carbon budget,three power transformation scenarios of deep low-carbon,zero carbon,and negative carbon were built,the key boundary conditions such as power consumption demand were studied,and a path planning optimization model was established in the paper.Using the GESP-V software package for optimized analysis,the low-carbon transformation paths were determined for power structure,power carbon emissions,and power supply costs under different scenarios.The major issues that are critical for the low-carbon transformation of the power system were discussed,including coal power development,renewable energy development and utilization,diversified supply of clean energy,and electric power balance.Several suggestions were further proposed.Specifically,the top-level design should be strengthened to steadily plan the transformation pace,major low-carbon technologies should be developed to coordinate the overall technology and industrial layout,and the market mechanism with balanced interests should be improved while establishing a green finance policy system.The high-quality low-carbon transformation of China’s power sector in the medium and long term can be promoted through the coordination of policies,technologies,and mechanisms.