中国省域生产性服务业与制造业联动融合关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Linkage and Integration Relationship Between Provincial Producer Services and Manufacturing Industry in China

协调好生产性服务业与制造业的经济关系对于中国“十四五”规划的有序推进意义重大。选取中国30个省份(不含西藏、香港、澳门、台湾)2009—2019年的面板数据为例,构建耦合协调度模型,并利用空间莫兰指数对两行业的融合关系进行实证分析。结果表明:中国生产性服务业与制造业发展处于高度耦合阶段,但是两者的协同发展关系并不理想;从全国层面来看,两行业的耦合水平与协调水平表现出明显的空间差异现象;从省域层面来看,两行业耦合水平的空间集聚特征明显,但是呈现出减弱趋势;耦合水平的省域差异特征明显,表现出差异扩大的现象。由此,提出要优化投资结构,促进生产性服务业的高质量发展,进一步推动省域间生产服务业与制造业的联动发展。

It is of great significance to coordinate the economic relationship between producer services and manufacturing industry for the orderly promotion of the“14th Five-Year Plan”.By taking the panel data of 30 provinces(Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan not included)in China from 2009 to 2019 as an example,a coupling coordination degree model is constructed,and an empirical analysis is made of the integration relationship between the two industries by using the spatial Moran’s I index.The results show as follows:the development of producer services and manufacturing industry in China is in a high coupling stage,but the collaborative development relationship between them is not ideal;from the national level,the coupling level and coordination level of the two industries show obvious spatial differences;from the provincial level,the spatial agglomeration characteristics of the coupling level of the two industries are obvious,but show a weakening trend;the characteristics of provincial differences of coupling level are obvious,showing the phenomenon of expanding differences.Therefore,it is proposed to optimize the investment structure,promote the high-quality development of producer services,and further promote the linkage development process of producer services and manufacturing industries among provinces.