自贸试验区设立与区域经济增长:基于动力机制与空间带动效应的研究

Establishment of Pilot Free Trade Zone and Regional Economic Growth: A Study Based on Dynamic Mechanism and Spatial Impetus Effect

自贸区试验作为国家制度型开放试验田,对于中国建设更高水平开放型经济新体制具有高度战略地位。本文运用2003—2018年274个城市的面板数据,运用双重差分法评估自贸试验区设立的经济增长效应并对影响机制进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)自贸试验区设立显著拉动了所在城市经济增长,并且经过工具变量法、安慰剂检验、PSM-DID检验、剔除国家级新区政策、变换被解释变量和变换样本与离群值等一系列检验之后,该结论仍然成立。(2)空间带动效应发现,自贸试验区设立除了能够影响所在城市经济增长,对其周围城市经济增长亦能产生影响。(3)动力机制检验发现,自贸试验区设立可通过制度变迁和创新驱动促进所在城市经济增长。(4)异质性分析发现,批次异质性表现出随着批次往后,经济增长带动效应逐渐递减的特征。内陆与沿海异质性表现为沿海自贸试验区显著拉动城市经济增长,而内陆自贸试验区不显著。本文为充分发挥自贸试验区政策效应、全力提升制度变迁和创新驱动经济增长的促进作用提供了经验证据和政策建议。

As an experimental plot for institutional opening,the pilot free trade zone has a highly strategic position in China as to build a new system for a higher level of open economy. Based on panel data of 274 cities from 2003 to 2018,this paper used DID method to evaluate the economic growth effect of the pilot free trade zone and conducts an empirical test of the impact mechanism. The results show that :( 1) Pilot free trade zones have significantly stimulated economic growth of the cites where they locate,and this conclusion still holds after a series of tests,such as IV method,placebo test,PSM-DID test,elimination of the national new district policy,transformation of the explained variables,samples and outliers.( 2) The spatial impetus effect shows that pilot free trade zones affect the economic growth of the cities they locate,as well as the cities they neighbor.( 3) The test of the dynamic mechanism demonstrates that pilot free trade zones promote the economic growth through institutional change and innovation driven.( 4) The heterogeneity test of batches shows the effect of economic growth is gradually reduced as batches over time. The heterogeneity of areas demonstrates the coastal-type pilot free trade zone significantly promotes urban economic growth,while inland-type is not significant. This paper provides empirical evidence and policy suggestions to the full play of pilot free trade zones in their policy effects,institutional change and innovation driven economic growth.