影子银行、土地价格与地区房价——基于省级面板数据的空间计量分析

Shadow Banking,Land Prices and Regional Housing Prices:Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

厘清了影子银行和土地价格影响地区房价的机理;结合全国30个地区(西藏除外)2013—2019年的面板数据,采用空间滞后模型,实证研究影子银行、土地价格和两者的交互项对我国各地区房价的影响并分解溢出效应.结果表明:两者与本地区和相邻地区的房价皆呈现正相关关系,影子银行通过助推地价从而促进房价上涨;地区房价具有较强的空间依赖性;控制变量中,人均收入水平与本地区和相邻地区的房价呈同向变化;财政支出对本地区和相邻地区的房价分别呈现出正面和负面的影响;房地产投资和表内信贷仅对本地区房价具有正向影响.基于此,提出在全面深化改革的形势下,考虑多元利益群体,从土地供给、金融监管和推动区域协调发展等方面着力,以促进住房市场长效机制发展.

The paper clarifies the mechanism of shadow banking and land price influencing regional housing price.Based on the panel data of 30 regions(except Tibet)from 2013 to 2019,the spatial lag model is adopted to empirically study the effects of shadow banking,land prices and their interaction on housing prices in various regions of China and to analyze the spillover effects.The results show that the two factors are both positively correlated with the housing price in the local area and its neighboring areas.The shadow banking promotes the housing price by boosting the land price.The regional housing price has strong spatial dependence.Considering all the control variables,the per capita income level changes in the same direction as the housing price in neighbouring areas does.The financial expenditure has a positive impact on housing price in the region,while it has a negative impact on housing price in neighboring areas.Real estate investment and on-balance sheet credit have a positive impact only on local housing prices.Based on this,it is proposed in the context of the comprehensive deepening of reform that multiple interest groups were brought into consideration to promote the development of a long-term mechanism for the housing market by focusing efforts on land supply,financial supervision and the promotion of regional coordinated development.