颠覆性技术感知响应系统框架研究

Research on the Framework of the Disruptive Technology Awareness and Response System

从颠覆性技术创新理论、识别方法、评价方法等三方面出发,系统梳理了颠覆性技术领域的研究现状,总结归纳了存在的主要问题。针对这些问题,面向我国颠覆性技术创新管理工作需要,考虑系统的可操作性,按照理论研究、资源建设、共性关键技术、应用示范等全链条布局原则,设计了包括“颠覆性技术识别理论方法与专家预判系统”“地平线扫描系统”“创新主体创新感知系统”“颠覆性技术感知响应平台开发与决策支撑应用”等四大部分的颠覆性技术感知响应系统框架。该系统框架可实现颠覆性技术、创新主体、政策等感知响应,可提供颠覆性技术监测、识别、评估、响应等服务,能有效支撑国家颠覆性技术决策,促进颠覆性技术创新工作。

This paper systematically reviews the research status in the field of disruptive technology,and summarizes the main problems of disruptive technology from the following three aspects:innovation theory,identification method and evaluation method.Considering the operability of the system,according to the principles of theoretical research,resource construction,common key technologies and application demonstration,we designed the framework of a four-part disrup‐tive technology awareness and response system,consisting of a“disruptive technology identification theory and expert pre‐diction system,”a“horizon scanning system,”an“innovative subject innovation awareness system,”and a“disruptive technology awareness and response platform development and decision support application,”to meet the need for subver‐sive technology innovation management in China.This system framework enables the awareness and response to disrup‐tive technologies,innovation subjects and policies,and can also provide services such as monitoring,identification,evalua‐tion and response to disruptive technologies.At the same time,the system can effectively support the decision-making of national disruptive technologies and promote the innovation of disruptive technologies.