“双碳”目标下“十四五”特高压规划线路对铁路煤炭运输的影响分析研究

Analysis and Research on the Impact of Planned UHV Lines in the 14th Five Year Plan on Railway Coal Transportation under the Goal of"Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality"

根据“双碳”战略背景下“十四五”期间特高压线路在建和规划情况,预测“十四五”期间两种情景下的煤炭需求替代量,对比煤炭替代量与铁路煤炭运量之间的关系,得出2019年至2025年特高压受端省煤炭替代总量/铁路调入总消费量比例将由15.21%提高至20.54%。最终得出特高压的建设和运营对煤炭需求的替代量将逐年增加、对铁路煤炭运输影响力不断增强的结论,并针对性地提出优化煤炭调运结构、优化铁路运输结构、创新铁路运输方式等措施建议。

According to the construction and planned lines of UHV during the 14th Five Year Plan period under the background of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"strategy,this paper forecasts the relation between coal substitution and coal transportation volume by railway in two scenarios.It is concluded that from 2019 to 2025,the rate of total coal substitution/total railway consumption in UHV receiving provinces will increase from 15.21%to 20.54%.The final conclusion is that during the 14th Five Year Plan period,the replacement of coal demand by UHV construction and operation will increase year by year,and its influence on railway coal transportation will continue to increase.Then,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as optimizing the coal transportation structure,optimizing the railway transportation structure,and innovating the railway transportation mode.