贸易政策不确定性、股权质押与企业风险--基于3453家上市企业数据的验证

Trade Policy Uncertainty,Equity Pledge,and Business Risks:Validation Based on Data of 3453 Listed Enterprises

随着贸易保护主义的抬头与经济逆全球化的兴起,各国双边或者多边贸易出现裂痕,其中中美两国的贸易摩擦程度之大、涉及之广在近几十年来前所未有。而贸易摩擦带来的首要影响就是各国贸易政策不确定性的升高,随之会引发企业一系列相关问题。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性会给企业带来巨大的经营风险,而贸易政策不确定性会导致企业进行股权质押,股权质押的比例越高对企业的经营风险越大。进一步发现,贸易政策不确定性对非国有企业经营风险的影响大于国有企业;对小企业经营风险的影响大于大企业。研究拓展了贸易摩擦和企业风险的相关讨论,并证明了贸易政策不确定性会引发企业经营风险;创新采用股权质押为视角来研究贸易政策不确定性对金融风险的影响,证明了股权质押比率越高,企业的经营风险越大,丰富了宏观经济政策与微观企业行为的相关研究;发现了贸易摩擦背景下非国有企业和小企业更容易受到风险的冲击,并有助于相关企业提前应对贸易摩擦引发的金融风险。

With the rise of trade protectionism and economic de-globalization,rifts have appeared in countries’bilateral or multilateral trades,among which the magnitude and scope of trade frictions between China and the United States have been unprecedented in recent decades.The primary impact of trade frictions is the increase of the uncertainty of each country’s trade policy,which leads to a series of related problems for enterprises.It is found that the uncertainty of trade policy will bring huge business risks to enterprises,and the uncertainty of trade policy will lead to the pledge of equity.The higher the proportion of equity pledge is,the greater the business risks will be.Further research has found that the uncertainty of trade policy has greater impacts on the business risks of non-state-owned enterprises than that of state-owned enterprises,and its influences on business risks of small businesses are bigger than that of large enterprises.First of all,this paper expands research on trade frictions and enterprise risks,and proves that the uncertainty of trade policy will lead to enterprise operation risks.Secondly,this paper uses equity pledge as a new perspective to study the impact of trade policy uncertainty on financial risks,and proves that the higher the equity pledge ratio is,the greater the business risks of enterprises will be,which enriches relevant research on macroeconomic policies and micro-enterprise behaviors.Finally,it is found that non-state-owned enterprises and small enterprises are more vulnerable to the impact of risks under the background of trade frictions,and it is helpful for relevant enterprises to deal with financial risks caused by trade frictions in advance.