基于排队论的终端区航班进场时间预测

Arrival Time Prediction of Flights in Terminal Area Based on Queuing Theory

为了提高终端区航班运行效率,本文将基于排队模型对终端区航班进场时间进行预测,以便尽早发现进场时间过长、进场效率低的航班,从而提前采取应对措施,确保航班正常运转。以天津滨海国际机场为例的研究结果表明,终端区内航班到达规律服从泊松分布,服务时间服从Gamma分布,本文建立的一般服务时间M/G/1排队模型能较好地预测航班进场时间,以15 min为单位的终端区航班进场时间预测的平均绝对误差在1 min左右。本文所建排队模型通过抓住进场交通流的整体流动特征来对进场时间进行预测,降低了现有模型难度,预测结果可以为改善管制工作带来更直接的指导建议。

In order to improve the operation efficiency of flights in the terminal area,this paper predicts the arrival time of flights in the terminal area based on the queuing model,so as to find out the flights with too long arrival time and low arrival efficiency,and take countermeasures in advance to ensure the normal operation of flights. Taking Tianjin Binhai International Airport as an example,the research results show that the arrival discipline of flights in the terminal area obeys the Poisson distribution,and the service time obeys the Gamma distribution. The general service time M/G/1 queuing model established in this paper can predict flight arrival time well. The mean absolute error(MAE)of the terminal area flight arrival time prediction in units of 15 min is about 1 min. The queuing model built in this paper predicts the arrival time by grasping the overall flow characteristics of the arrival traffic flow,which reduces the difficulty of the existing model,and the prediction results can bring more direct guidance and suggestions for improving the control work.