可再生能源等比补贴系数及投资估值模型研究

Research on Renewable Energy Equivalent Subsidy Coefficient and Investment Evaluation Model

[目的]随着我国"碳中和、碳达峰"目标的提出,可再生能源发电企业面临着快速扩大装机规模,大力发展投资并购的诉求,在我国存量补贴资金缺口逐步增大的背景下,如何确定可再生能源项目的补贴收入,并采用合理方法对项目估值,一直是并购决策的难点。[方法]重点关注了2020年发布的补贴新政,测算了可再生能源存量补贴的兑付系数,基于多情景假设补贴现金流入的规模及时间。[结果]通过等比补贴系数测算及投资估值模型,明确了我国补贴缺口的收口时间及各年度的等比补贴系数,并基于可再生能源项目特点,研究选定最佳估值方法。[结论]通过估值模型对部分地区的海上风电和陆上风电项目进行了估值,为企业投资及并购提供了重要决策支撑。

[Introduction]With the proposal of the goal of"carbon neutrality and peak carbon dioxide emission"in China,renewable energy power generation enterprises are facing the demands of rapidly expanding the installed capacity and vigorously developing investment and mergers and acquisitions.Under the background of the increasing shortage of existing subsidy funds in China,how to determine the subsidy income of renewable energy projects and adopt a reasonable method to evaluate the project has always been the difficulty of M&A decision.[Method]This paper focused on the new subsidy policy issued in 2020,calculated the cashing coefficient of renewable energy stock subsidy,and calculated the scale and time of subsidy cash inflow based on multi scenario assumption.[Result]Through the calculation of equal subsidy coefficient and investment valuation model,the end time of subsidy gap and the equal subsidy coefficient of each year are defined,and the best valuation method is selected based on the characteristics of renewable energy projects.[Conclusion]The offshore wind power and onshore wind power projects in some regions are valued using the valuation model,which provides important decision support for enterprise investment and mergers and acquisitions.