中国海外基础设施建设与当地冲突--基于水电站项目的实证分析

Chinese Overseas Infrastructure Construction and Local Conflicts:An Empirical Analysis of Hydropower Projects

进入21世纪,海外基础设施建设合作在中国外交中的重要性不断提升,相关项目在当地的影响也受到海内外学者、智库与媒体高度关注。在对项目各领域影响的评估中,关于中国海外基建项目与当地冲突的讨论尚不充分,并缺乏采用实证研究方法的具体检验。作者创建了带有地理坐标信息的全球37个国家共106个中国海外水电站项目的新数据集,采用双重差分法和多层线性模型等定量分析方法,在微观地理网格层面对2004-2019年中国海外水电站项目与当地冲突的关系进行了实证检验。研究发现,不同于部分西方智库和媒体传达的“中国海外水电站导致当地冲突增加”这一观点,中国海外水电站整体上对所在地冲突的发生起到了缓和作用。这一影响的具体机制与水电站项目带来的当地经济发展有关:随着水电站推动当地经济发展,民众发起冲突的机会成本与政府治理能力均有提升,经济不平等引发的不满情绪有所缓和,导致当地冲突事件减少。同时,所在国族群和政体等国内因素会弱化水电站项目对当地冲突的缓和作用,因此需要注意防范相关政治风险。

Since the beginning of the 21st century,international cooperation on infrastructure construction has become increasingly significant in China’s diplomacy. The local impact of relevant projects has also attracted high attention from scholars, think tanks and media at home and abroad. In the existing literature,the discussion on the influence of Chinese overseas infrastructure projects on local conflicts and related empirical research is still insufficient. Based on a new dataset of 106 Chinese hydropower projects in 37 countries,this article analyzes the micro-level impact of these projects on local conflicts between 2004 and 2019 with quantitative methods such as the difference-in-differences method and hierarchical linear model. Contrary to the view of some Western think tanks and media that Chinese overseas hydropower stations are intensifying conflicts, it shows that Chinese hydropower projects have moderated local conflicts. The result also supports the mechanism of local economic development effects of hydropower projects: as these projects promote local economy,the opportunity cost of initiating conflicts and the government’s capacity are improved,and the dissatisfaction caused by economic inequality is also alleviated,which leads to the reduction of local conflicts. In addition,the political and ethnic factors in host countries could weaken the moderating effect of Chinese hydropower projects on local conflicts.