生猪疫情对猪肉价格非线性冲击的形成机理与检验

The Formation Mechanism and Test of the Non-linear Impact of Pig Epidemics on Pork Prices

本文首先分析生猪疫情对猪肉价格非线性冲击的作用机理,然后采用2009年2月至2020年2月猪肉价格相关月度数据,以生猪疫情宽度指数作为阈值变量构建阈值回归模型,研究生猪疫情对猪肉价格波动所存在的阈值效应。本文研究结果表明,滞后5期的生猪疫情宽度指数对猪肉价格增长率的影响存在1个阈值点,即猪肉价格波动存在两种运行机制:当生猪疫情宽度指数低于阈值0.35时,生猪疫情冲击对猪肉价格波动无显著影响;当生猪疫情宽度指数高于0.35时,生猪疫情对猪肉价格波动具有显著的正向作用。据此结论,本文认为:一方面要将阈值作为重大生猪疫情防控的参考值,强化生猪疫情应急调控机制,提高价格预期管理水平;另一方面要加强生猪出栏监管力度,建立疫情期生猪标准重出栏制度,缓解突发性重大生猪疫情对猪肉供应链的剧烈影响,以促进猪肉价格的长期平稳运行。

This article analyzes the mechanism of the non-linear impact of pig epidemics on pork prices,collects the monthly data related to pork prices from February 2009 to February 2020,and constructs a threshold regression model with width index of pig epidemics as the threshold variable to examine the threshold effect of pig epidemics on the fluctuation of pork prices.The results show that there is a threshold point for the impact of pig epidemics width index with a lag of five-period on the growth rate of pork prices.There are two operating mechanisms for the fluctuation of pork prices.When the actual pig epidemics width index is lower than the threshold value of 0.35,pig epidemics generate no significant positive impact on the fluctuation of pork prices.When the actual pig epidemics width index is higher than the threshold value of 0.35,pig epidemics have a significant positive impact on the fluctuation of pork prices.Based on these conclusions,on the one hand,it is recommended to use the threshold as a reference value for the prevention and control of major pig epidemics,strengthen the emergency control mechanism of pig epidemics,and improve the management level of price expectation.On the other hand,it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of pig slaughter and establish standards for pigs during the period of epidemics.The above measures can alleviate the severe impact of the sudden major pigepidemics on the pork supply chain,so asto promote thelong-term and stable operationofpork prices.