老年照护保障与女性劳动参与——基于中国农村长期护理保险试点的政策效果评估

Elderly Care Security and Female Labor Participation:Policy Effects Evaluation of Long-term Care Insurance in Rural China

农村女性作为家庭老年照护的主要承担者,劳动参与受到严重抑制。本文通过构建包含长期护理保险的世代交叠模型,发现长期护理保险可以提升农村女性就业概率,并促使她们向非农产业转移。在此基础上,本文使用2011年、2013年、2015年和2018年四期CHARLS数据建立多时点差分模型进行实证检验。结果表明:与未开展长期护理保险的地区相比,开展长期护理保险地区的农村女性就业概率更高、潜在工作时间更长,政策效果分别为8.14个百分点和0.48小时/天;受长期护理保险影响,农村女性选择非农就业和外出就业的概率分别提高19.44个和9.75个百分点;长期护理保险有效减轻了农村地区劳动力就业性别歧视,提高了老年照护质量,实现了"帕累托改进"。本文的研究为加快建设农村地区养老照护财务支撑体系和服务体系,提升农村女性劳动参与和保障女性就业权益提供了政策启示。

As the main undertakers of family care for the elderly,rural women’s labor participation has been severely inhibited.By building an over lapping generation(OLG) model including long-term care insurance(LTCI),this article finds that LTCI can improve the employment probability of rural women and promote their transfer to non-agricultural industries.On this basis,the study establishes a time-varying DID model and uses the four periods of CHARLS data in 2011,2013,2015 and 2018 for empirical test.The results show that the employment probability and potential working time of rural women in the areas with LTCI are higher than those in the areas without LTCI,and the average policy effects are about 8.14 percentage points and 0.48 hours per day.Affected by LTCI,the probability of rural women choosing non-agricultural employment and out-of-town employment has also significantly increased by 19.44 and 9.75 percentage points,respectively.LTCI has effectively weakened gender discrimination in rural labor employment and improved care quality for the elderly,thus realizing a Pareto improvement.This study provides policy inspirations for speeding up the construction of financial support system and service system of elderly care in rural areas,improving ruralwomen’s labor participation and protecting theiremploymentrights and interests.