缓解猪价周期性波动中猪粮比价指标的应用研究——-基于猪价变动趋势及影响因素分析

Application Research of Relieving Pig Grain Ratio in Hog Price Periodic Wave——Analysis of the trend of hog prices and influencing factors

以猪粮比价作为分级预警和调控机制的主要监测指标,是决定短期市场调控启动最关键的指标。猪粮比价盈亏平衡点既受生产成本因素影响,也受玉米价格影响。如果不能及时准确调整,可能会影响政策干预效果。因此,有必要研究猪粮比价盈亏平衡点的变动规律、影响因素以及猪周期测算生猪养殖盈亏状况,合理利用猪周期盈亏变动规律,这对促进生猪产业健康发展具有借鉴意义。从中长期来看,猪粮比价盈亏平衡点是稳定的,但短期可能会偏离。一般来说,猪粮比盈亏平衡点随饲料成本占全成本比重提升而下降,仔猪成本增加会带动猪粮比价盈亏平衡点提升,仔猪价格和玉米价格波动方向和幅度均会显著影响猪粮比平衡点。大型养殖户平衡点和效益稳定性高于中小型养殖户。建议基于饲料价格、仔猪价格波动以及养殖分工等因素,科学设定猪粮比价盈亏平衡点指标和政策干预启动区间,通过基于猪周期猪粮比价盈亏平衡点和养殖收益来建立中长期生产合同,短期市场调控政策与中长期产业政策协同实现保供稳价目标。

As the main monitoring index of the pig grain as a hierarchical warning and regulation mechanism,it is the most critical indicator to determine the short-term market regulation. The price-priced price of pig grain is affected by the production cost factors and is also affected by corn price. If it is not possible to accurately adjust, it may affect policy intervention. Therefore, it is necessary to study the changes in the variation of pig grain comparison, influencing factors and hog cycle measurement of pig breeding profit, reasonable use of hog cycle profit and loss, which has the knowledge of healthy development of hog industry. Significance. From a medium long term,pig grain comparison and loss balance is stable, but short-term may be deviated. In general, hog food is lower than that of the cost of feed costs with feed costs, and the cost of piglets will drive pig grain comparison and loss and loss,and the volatility of piglets and corn price will significantly affect pig grain ratio. balance point. Large farmers balance points and benefits stability are higher than small and medium-sized farmers. It is recommended that the feed price, piglet price fluctuations and factors such as farming division, scientific setting of pig grain comparison and balance point indicators and policy interventions, and establish a medium and long-term production contract by based on pig cycle pigs comparison and balance points and farming income, Short-term market regulation policies and medium-long industry policies to protect the stable target.