以人为核心的新型城镇化能缩小我国地区收入差距吗

Can People-centered New Urbanization Narrow the Regional Income Disparities in China?

中国共产党的十九届五中全会明确强调推进"以人为核心的新型城镇化建设"。本文对我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2008—2019年以人为核心的新型城镇化发展水平进行了量化测度;在此基础上,从省际和省内两个角度出发,构建动态空间自回归模型和面板门限模型,实证检验了以人为核心的新型城镇化对我国地区收入差距的影响。研究结果表明:(1)我国以人为核心的新型城镇化发展水平存在较为明显的地域差异,从局部省份的测算结果对比看这种差异更加明显;(2)核心城镇化发展水平的提升有利于促进省际收入差距缩小,但这种影响具有双重门槛效应,即随着以人为核心的新型城镇化水平提升,其对收入差距的影响先后表现为弱正向影响、不显著影响和强正向影响;(3)以人为核心的新型城镇化发展有利于缩小省内地市间收入差距,但其效果同样存在非线性特征;(4)人力资本水平、政府调控、科技创新、经济市场化、对外开放等因素也是我国省际或省内收入差距的显著影响因素。

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee clearly emphasize the promotion of "peoplecentered new urbanization". This paper quantitatively measures the development level of people-centered new urbanization in 31 provinces in China from 2008 to 2019.On this basis,this paper futher constructs dynamic spatial autoregressive model and panel threshold model from the perspectives of inter provincial and intra provincial,and empirically tests the impact of people-centered new urbanization on China’s regional income gaps.The results show that:(1)There are obvious regional differences in the development level of people-centered new urbanization in China.From the comparison of the calculation results of some provinces,this difference is more obvious.(2) The improvement of people-centered new urbanization is conducive to reducing the inter provincial income gaps,but this impact has a double threshold effect,that is,with the improvement of the people-centered new urbanization,its impact on the income gaps has been shown as weak positive impact,insignificant impact and strong positive impact.(3) The development of people-centered new urbanization is conducive to narrowing the income gaps between cities in the province,but its effect also has nonlinear characteristics.(4) Human capital level,government regulation,scientific and technological innovation,economic marketization,opening to the outside world and other factors are also significant factors affecting the inter provincial or intra provincial income gaps.