我国居民杠杆对消费影响的空间效应研究

A Study on the Spatial Effect of Household Leverage on Consumption in China

从空间维度探寻居民杠杆对消费影响的区域差异,对于我国科学实施消费需求侧管理和稳定居民杠杆具有重要意义。基于我国省级层面的经济数据,构建空间滞后模型和地理加权回归模型,实证分析居民杠杆对消费影响的空间效应。研究结果表明:我国居民杠杆和消费均存在显著的空间正相关性和分布不均衡性;居民杠杆会抑制消费,但抑制作用不存在空间溢出效应;消费存在空间溢出效应;居民杠杆对消费的抑制作用存在空间异质性,抑制效果由我国东部沿海省份至西部内陆省份逐步递减。

Exploring the regional differences of householdleverage on consumption from the spatial dimension is of great significance for the scientific implementation of consumer demand side management and stabilizing leverage.Based on the provincial level data,this paper studied the spatial effect of household leverage on consumption by constructing spatial lag model and geographically weighted regression model.The results show that:1)there is a significant spatial positive correlation and uneven distribution between household leverage and consumption;2)household leverage can inhibit consumption,but there is no spillover effect,and consumption has spillover effect;3)household leverage has spatial heterogeneity in the inhibition of consumption,and the inhibition effect gradually reduces from the eastern coastal provinces to the western inland provinces.