“中国睡狮说”是梁启超的发明吗?

Did Liang Qichao Invent the "China is a Sleeping Lion" Thesis?

近年来,中、美、日、澳等国相继有学者对"中国睡狮说"提出质疑,力主"睡狮说"乃梁启超的发明创造。但从史料看,至迟在甲午战争时期日本报刊对"中国睡狮说"已有明确记载,尾崎行雄的《东洋的危机》、大泽龙的《支那论》均早于梁启超的《动物谈》。据尾崎、大泽等人的文章,该说起源于西方,与西方人为了侵略中国而对中国综合国力所作的判断有关。尾崎等引用并反对该说,意在宣传"支那征服论",为侵略中国制造借口;大泽等援引该说,意在宣传"支那保全论",为其亚洲主义策略服务。从方法论检讨,当下学者之所以误判,很大程度上是由于他们使用了默证法,但没有严格遵守其限定条件,混淆了推理与证据的关系。

In recent years,scholars in China,the United States,Japan,Australia and other countries have questioned the historical authenticity of the“China is a sleeping lion”Thesis.They argue that the“sleeping lion”thesis is just a fabrication by Liang Qichao,and explain that Chinese national vanity gave rise to its popularity.This article argues otherwise.There is clear evidence that the phrase“Chinese is a Sleeping Lion”had appeared in Japanese newspapers no later than the First Sino-Japanese War.The analogy came up in Ozaki Yukio’s“Crisis in Toyo”and Osawa Ryu’s“On Shina”,which were both earlier than Liang Qichao’s“Talking About Animals”.According to Ozaki and Osawa,the“sleeping lion”thesis came from the West and was related to Westerners’overall judgement on China’s national power as an excuse to invade China.Ozaki quoted and opposed this theory to promote the“China Conquest Theory”to make an excuse for Japan’s invasion of China.Whereas Ozaki quoted this theory to advocate the theory on“preserving China”in service of Japan’s Asianism.From a methodological review,the current scholars’misjudgement is largely due to the use of“argument from silence”,but they don’t strictly abide by its restrictions,which confuses the relationship between the speculation and evidence.