摘要
我国部分发达地区的人口控制政策对地区人口发展有很强的影响,同时也增加了人口预测的难度。文章针对政策影响因素提出了改进的队列要素法,考虑生存概率、净迁移率、生育率的变化速度等参数,提升了模型短期内的预测效果,并以北京市某城区2010年常住人口普查数据为基础进行实证分析和预测,结果显示:2019—2035年该城区常住人口总量逐年减少、渐趋平稳,老年人口比重持续上升。
The population control policy in some developed areas of China has a strong impact on regional population development,and also increases the difficulty of population projection.In view of the policy influencing factors,this paper proposes an improved cohort component method model,taking into account the survival probability,migration rate,changing rate of fertility rate and other parameters,and improving the prediction effect of the model in the short term.The paper also uses the census data of permanent residents in a certain urban area of Beijing in 2010 to make an empirical analysis and prediction.The results show that the total permanent population in this urban area will increase first and then decrease from 2010 to 2035,with the proportion of elderly population continuing to rise.
作者
李爱华
王迪文
Li Aihua;Wang Diwen(School of Management Science and Engineering,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第22期36-40,共5页
Statistics & Decision
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71932008)。
关键词
人口预测
队列要素法
人口控制
政策影响
population projection
cohort component method
population control
policy impact
