中美增加值贸易再测算

Re-calculation of Sino-US Value-added Trade

文章采用假设抽取的方法厘清了双边增加值贸易统计的三种主流指标,并结合生产侧与消费侧特点,提出一种新的核算指标,对现有增加值贸易理论和方法研究进行了补充。通过对2000—2014年中美56个产业部门的双边增加值贸易进行重新测算、比较和分解,发现在中美贸易中,美国的消费性功能大于生产性功能。单纯计算消费侧的贸易差额高估了中美贸易不平衡,而单纯计算生产侧的贸易差额又低估了中美贸易顺差,只有将生产侧与消费侧相结合才能更客观地反映中美之间的贸易不平衡状况。2008年金融危机之后,中美增加值贸易顺差中生产侧的比重在上升,而消费侧的比重在下降。在行业层面,中国初级产品的增加值更多的是包含在工业制成品中为美国的消费环节而非最终生产环节所吸收;在制造业内部,传统劳动密集型部门的消费侧增加值出口比重下降较为缓慢,技术密集型部门基于消费侧的增加值出口比重下降;在服务业部门,中美增加值贸易一直为逆差,但是在2013年和2014年,中美在最终品服务贸易环节的增加值贸易为顺差。

This paper uses the Hypothesis Extraction Method to clarify the three mainstream indicators of bilateral value-added trade statistics.Combining the characteristics of production side and consumption side,the paper proposes a new accounting index,which supplements the existing value-added trade theories and method researches.The paper re-calculates,compares and decomposes the bilateral value-added trade of 56 industrial sectors between China and the US from 2000 to 2014,and the results are as follows:The consumption function of the United States is greater than the production function in Sino-US trade.Simply calculating the trade balance on the consumption side overestimates the trade imbalance between China and the US,while only calculating the trade balance on the production side underestimates the trade surplus between China and the US.Only by combining the production side with the consumption side can the trade imbalance between China and the United States be more objectively reflected.After the financial crisis in 2008,the proportion of production side in the value-added trade surplus between China and the United States increased while that of consumption side decreased.At the industry level,the added value of China’s primary products is more included in the industrial manufactured goods absorbed by the consumption process of the United States rather than by the final production process.Within the manufacturing industry,the share of value-added exports on the consumption side of the traditional labor-intensive sector declines slowly,and the share of value-added exports on the consumption side of the technology-intensive sector declines.In the service sector,China and the US have been running a deficit in value-added trade,but in 2013 and 2014,China and the United States have a surplus in value-added trade in final goods and services.