教育支出改革与财政压力分析——基于断点回归方法的估计

Analysis of Educational Expenditure Reform and Financial Pressure——An Estimation Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

央地关系研究是经济社会发展的现实需要和财税体制改革大局的重点所在,平衡央地间财力与公共品提供是当前亟需解决的问题之一。本文利用2010年教育支出改革进行了断点回归设计,以测算地方政府为完成上级政策目标在财政上需付出的成本大小。研究发现:为完成上级设定目标,地方政府财政教育支出规模迅速扩张,进而导致其财政收支缺口上涨了约4.5%—5%,政府整体压力显著提升;不同经济状况和分权程度的地区为达到政策目标所付出的成本不同。研究结论对未来明确教育领域央地财政事权和支出责任划分具有一定启示作用。

The research on the relationship between central and local governments is the practical need of economic and social development and the focus of the overall situation of fiscal and tax system reform.Balancing the financial resources and the responsibility to provide public goods between central and local governments is one of the urgent problems to be solved at present.In this paper,the regression discontinuity design is carried out by using the education expenditure reform in 2010 to calculate the financial cost that the local government needs to pay to complete the superior policy objectives.The study found that in order to achieve the goals set by the superior,the scale of local government financial expenditure on education expanded rapidly,which led to the increase of fiscal revenue and expenditure gap by about 4.5%-5%,and the overall pressure of the government increased significantly;regions with different economic conditions and decentralization pay different costs to achieve policy objectives.The research conclusion has some enlightenment for clarifying the division of central and local financial powers and expenditure responsibilities in the field of education in the future.