“双碳”目标下中国能源发展与能源安全若干问题思考

Thoughts of China’s energy development and energy security under the“dual carbon”goal

碳达峰和碳中和目标的实现需要能源相关碳排放在尽快达峰后快速下降,加快煤炭减量和非化石能源替代,更好地统筹碳达峰和碳中和两个阶段性目标,同步推进终端用能电气化和电力部门低碳化。基于"世界与中国能源展望模型"对中国能源体系演变进行模拟后发现,实现"双碳"目标需要非化石能源规模化和化石能源清洁低碳化齐头并进。在此过程中,中国能源安全或将面临供需错配、能源电力系统不稳定、技术路线不确定等方面风险和挑战,需要协调处理好能源需求增长与绿色发展,化石能源与可再生能源发展,产业链上下游价格传导,绿色低碳技术与转型成本之间的关系。各地区各行业需有效落实并科学执行顶层设计规划,建议构建安全可靠的能源储备系统,建立统筹兼顾的利益平衡机制,并超前规划布局关键技术。

Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality requires the rapidly fall of energy-related carbon emission after peaking as soon as possible with accelerating the reduction of coal and the replacement of non-fossil energy,better coordinating the two phased goals of"carbon dioxide peak"and"carbon neutrality",and promoting end-use electrification and low-carbon power sector at the same time.By simulating the evolution of China’s energy system based on the"World and China Energy Outlook Model",it is found that to achieve the goal of"dual carbon"goal,non-fossil energy needs to go hand in hand with clean and low-carbon fossil energy.With the accelerating low-carbon transformation,there are still such constraints on China’s energy security as risks and challenges in mismatch between demand and supply,energy system stability,technical route uncertainty.It’s necessary to seek a balance between energy growth and green development,between fossil energy and renewable energy,price transmission of industrial chain in upstream and downstream,and between green and low-carbon technological routes and costs.All regions and industries need to effectively and scientifically implement the top-level design planning,construct safe and reliable energy reserve system,formulate overall interest balance mechanism,and plan key advanced technologies layout in advance.